Climate Change and Coal Consumption Cap


Based on the premise of limiting global average temperature rise to within 2 degrees Celsius, and assuming "per capita carbon emissions" do not change before Year 2100, this report examines the probable carbon emissions constraints facing China, and proposes three possible carbon emissions pathways: Intensive, High, and Low; resulting in probabilities in a descending order of limiting global average temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius. 

This project begins by examining the incorporation of quantified carbon emissions reduction goals and coal consumption caps to local Twelfth-Five Year Plans and individual annual plans by the cities and provinces selected by the Coal Cap Project, followed by an identification of the existential problems and challenges therein. Then, the project analyzes the necessity and viability of incorporating coal consumption caps to local Thirteenth Five Year Plans under the scenarios with carbon emissions constraints, based on the goals of carbon intensity, energy conservation and renewable energy development that have been stated by the selected cities and provinces. 

(The document is available in Chinese only.)